October 31, 2008 -
Details have begun to emerge on OPEC countries' plans to cut crude production in line with the cartel's October 24 decision to remove 1.5 million b/d from world oil markets from the beginning of November. (See table of OPEC production cuts and new targets.)
The reduction will be divided among 11 members and made from a baseline of 28.808 million b/d, which is derived by subtracting Indonesia's allocation from the 29.673 million b/d 12-member ceiling set in September 2007. Iraq does not have an output allocation.
On October 28, the UAE's Abu Dhabi National Oil Co said it would cut term liftings of Upper Zakum crude by 5% from November.
ADNOC will maintain the cut in Upper Zakum volumes in December, when it will also cut Murban allocations by 15%, Lower Zakum by 10% and Umm Shaif by 5%.
The UAE's share of the total cut is 134,000 b/d.
Most of Venezuela's 129,000 b/d crude output cut will come mainly from the country's Orinoco belt, according to state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela on October 30.
Oil minister Rafael Ramirez said Venezuela was currently producing 3.28 million b/d, including 598,000 b/d from the Orinoco belt.
Independent estimates put Venezuelan crude production much lower, however, the International Energy Agency having pegged September output at 2.37 million b/d.
Nigeria will reduce the amount of crude oil it exports in November and December by 5%, a spokesman for Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation said October 30.
In addition, five cargoes have been removed from the November lifting program and 7.6 cargoes will be axed from the December program, the spokesman said.
This cut totals around 11.97 million barrels, equivalent to six VLCCs.
Traders expressed surprise at the depth of the cuts planned by Nigeria given that so much production is already shut-in, with force majeure still in place on Bonny Light and Brass River.
"Before this news there had been talk of imminent cuts but because of the considerable amount of production still shut-in this is a surprise," one trader said.
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Nigeria's share of the total OPEC cut is 113,000 b/d.
The December export program had been expected to total around 61 million barrels.
The cuts will reduce exports to around 53.5 million barrels or 1.72 million b/d.
Iranian oil minister Gholamhossein Nozari said on October 30 that his country would cut output by its 199,000 b/d share. "On an OPEC decision, Iran will, based on a specified quota, cut 199,000 barrels per day as of November 1, 2008," he said, quoted by official news agency IRNA.
"We expect all countries to lower their oil production [as] per the declared quota."
OPEC compliance with production cuts has traditionally fallen short of the full volume.
Washington-based consultancy PFC Energy said in a note to clients October 30 that "significant questions remain on actual quota adherence, especially as in the past the true consensus has been on the need for Saudi Arabia to undertake the bulk of the cuts alone."
PFC expects only 850,000 b/d of OPEC crude to be removed from physical markets by January, with the bulk of actual cuts likely to be made by Gulf producers.
PFC estimated that Saudi Arabian production had already fallen to 9.2 million b/d by October from mid-year highs of 9.7 million b/d."
"Faced not only with the prospects of a global oversupply, but also finding lowered demand for crude from its customers, Saudi Aramco allocations are likely to further dwindle over the coming months. We see ultimate production levels for January reaching as low as 8.6 million b/d," PFC said. "While this remains above the Kingdom's nominal quota of 8.477 million b/d, this represents a cut of 600,000 b/d from October's output, and 1.3 million b/d from the 9.7 million b/d high."
PFC expects UAE output to decline to 2.433 million b/d, its new target, by December from September levels of 2.63 million b/d.
It estimates that planned maintenance has already reduced production to 2.46 million b/d in October.
Lower customer demand is likely to reduce both Kuwaiti and Qatari output, PFC said.
Iran, because of internal demand for associated gas--especially in winter, "will likely be slow to cut production," PFC said. "But as a cartel member needing one of the highest oil prices to cover its import needs, future pleas for more aggressive market management may fall on deaf ears if some contribution is not made."
OPEC is next scheduled to meet in Oran, Algeria, on December 17.
Several ministers have said the group may meet before then if prices, which have more than halved from record highs of more than $147/barrel in early July, continue to decline.
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