Platts pre-report survey of EIA estimates suggests 1.2 million barrel build in US oil stocks

New York, January 15, 2008 -- Analysts expect US commercial crude oil stocks to show a 1.2 million barrel build when the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and American Petroleum Institute (API) release weekly data on January 15, a Platts survey Tuesday indicated. The data is scheduled to be reported on January 15 at 10:30 a.m. ET/15:30 GMT.

Typically, US crude stocks have increased 3.4 million barrels on average during the second week of January in the past five years, according to statistics from API.

While imports are expected to seasonally rebound for the reporting week- reflecting the typical pattern of early-year cargo offloading from tankers backlogged by weather and holiday schedules--the bounce is expected to be tempered by two days of weather-related closures in the Houston Ship Channel. Not only did the Houston Ship Channel close to traffic due to weather issues, but so too did the Sabine and Corpus Christi Channels.

Crude imports slipped 204,000 b/d to 9.806 million b/d the week ending January 4, according to the EIA, as Mexican port closures fed into the drop.

The stock build will also result from a drop in refinery inputs as another maintenance season gets under way. Refinery utilization is expected to decline 0.9 percentage points to 90.4%, based on last week's EIA data, with the decrease occurring in PADD III (Gulf Coast).

ConocoPhillips started work on its fluid catalytic converter at its 146,000 b/d Borger, Texas, refinery January 6 while ExxonMobil shut its FCC at its 192,760 b/d Chalmette, Louisiana, plant on January 4.

Analysts project a build of 2.7 million barrels in gasoline stocks despite the drop off in refiner output resulting from lower inputs. A tepid level of gasoline demand contributed to a rapid-fire build up in inventories during the fourth quarter 2007.

Analysts also look for distillate stocks to increase by 1.8 million barrels. A two-day cold snap along the Atlantic Coast last week was probably not sufficient to pump up distillate demand.