Platts pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API estimates suggests 500,000 barrel build in US oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks up 500,000 barrels
- Gasoline stocks down 2.2 million barrels
- Distillates stocks up 1.9 million barrels
- Refinery utilization or run rate down 0.75 percentage point to 86.25%
New York - August 12, 2008
Analysts expect US commercial crude oil inventories to show a 500,000 barrel build when the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and American Petroleum Institute (API) release weekly data on Wednesday, a Platts survey indicated Tuesday. The EIA/API data is scheduled to be reported Wednesday at 10:35 a.m. ET/15:35 GMT.
"While crude oil imports should dip back below 10 million barrels per day (b/d) due to Tropical Storm Edouard-related closures in the Houston and Galveston Ship Channels and the Sabine Pass last week, refinery utilization rates are expected to decline sufficiently to offset lost imports," said Linda Rafield, Platts senior oil analyst and editor of Platts Futures & Derivatives Review.
Glitches due to power problems associated with Edouard along the Gulf Coast and a spate of downed fluid catalytic crackers in the Midwest is expected to result in a 0.75% drop in refinery utilization rates to 86.25%, based on last week's EIA data.
Platts reported that Marathon Oil cut rates at its 226,000 refinery in Catlettsburg, Kentucky, after shutting a 20-inch line between Patoka, Illinois, and Owensboro, Kentucky. Market sources late last week said a fluid catalytic cracker at the 360,000 b/d Wood River refinery in Roxana, Illinois, jointly owned by ConocoPhillips and EnCana, which had gone down following a power outage in late July, would be offline for two more weeks. Traders at the same time said the fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) at CITGO's 167,000 b/d Lemont, Illinois, refinery would be down for unplanned work for another 10 days. Motiva's Port Arthur refinery suffered a glitch due to a power outage from Edouard.
Analysts anticipate a decline of 2.2 million barrels in gasoline stocks due to poor refining margins and lower run rates, which should further reduce output.
Analysts also project a 1.9 million barrel build in distillate stocks. "With the NYMEX heating oil crack spread still trading at an $11 per-barrel-premium to RBOB, refiners still have the incentive to maximize distillate production," Rafield added.