The Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests US EIA data will show a 165-170 Bcf reduction in natural gas stocks for the latest reporting week Washington, DC - February 18, 2009 The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is expected to report a reduction of between 165 billion cubic feet (Bcf) and 170 Bcf in natural gas storage inventories for the week that ended Friday, February 6, according to a Platts survey of analysts. A withdrawal within those expectations would be larger than last year's 143-Bcf pull but on par with the five-year-average draw of 166 Bcf, according to EIA. As a result, the 60-Bcf surplus over last year's level should contract, while the 17-Bcf surplus over the five-year average should remain relatively stable. A drawdown above average or above expectations could push natural gas prices higher because it means less gas is available for consumption during the winter heating season. The broader range of analyst expectations for the latest reporting period ranged from withdrawals of 154 Bcf to 187 Bcf. "The absence of withdrawals at or above 200 Bcf for a single week ... continue to signal a combination of weak demand and still-growing supply," analysts with Barclays Capital said. Raymond James analysts also agreed, saying their current models show a theoretical 4.5 trillion cubic feed (Tcf) of gas in storage by the end of the 2009 injection season. "Given that actual storage capacity is somewhere around 3.7 Tcf, our analysis suggests that the market will need to shut in some 800 Bcf of natural gas this summer, or over 5 Bcf/d, beginning in June," the analysts warned.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is expected to report a reduction of between 165 billion cubic feet (Bcf) and 170 Bcf in natural gas storage inventories for the week that ended Friday, February 6, according to a Platts survey of analysts.
A withdrawal within those expectations would be larger than last year's 143-Bcf pull but on par with the five-year-average draw of 166 Bcf, according to EIA. As a result, the 60-Bcf surplus over last year's level should contract, while the 17-Bcf surplus over the five-year average should remain relatively stable.
A drawdown above average or above expectations could push natural gas prices higher because it means less gas is available for consumption during the winter heating season.
The broader range of analyst expectations for the latest reporting period ranged from withdrawals of 154 Bcf to 187 Bcf.
"The absence of withdrawals at or above 200 Bcf for a single week ... continue to signal a combination of weak demand and still-growing supply," analysts with Barclays Capital said.
Raymond James analysts also agreed, saying their current models show a theoretical 4.5 trillion cubic feed (Tcf) of gas in storage by the end of the 2009 injection season.
"Given that actual storage capacity is somewhere around 3.7 Tcf, our analysis suggests that the market will need to shut in some 800 Bcf of natural gas this summer, or over 5 Bcf/d, beginning in June," the analysts warned.