The Platts pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API estimates suggests a build of 2.2 million barrels in US oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks up 2.2 million barrels
- Gasoline stocks down 600,000 barrels
- Distillates stocks down 1.5 million barrels
- Refinery utilization or run rate unchanged at 81.4%
New York, NY - March 2, 2009
Analysts expect a 2.2 million-barrel build in US commercial crude oil stocks to be reflected in this week's inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API), a Platts survey showed Monday.
The API is due to release its data at 4:30 pm EST Tuesday, having moved the release forward from the usual 10:30 am EST Wednesday, when the EIA will release its numbers.
"With crude inputs below 14 million barrels per day (b/d), imports are not likely to rebound from EIA's 8.769 million b/d level reported the week ending February 20," said Linda Rafield, Platts senior oil analyst and editor of the weekly Platts Futures and Derivatives Review. "But imports of more than 8.65 million b/d would likely result in another build in crude stocks," Rafield said, "as will the continued contango in the front of the New York Mercantile Exchange's crude oil futures curve." Contango is the industry vernacular for the condition whereby prices of crude oil for nearby delivery are lower than prices for future-month delivery.
Refinery utilization is expected to be unchanged at 81.4%, based on last week's EIA report. Some refinery restarts, particularly along the Gulf Coast, will likely be offset by the start of maintenance in other facilities.
Analysts project a decline of 600,000 barrels in gasoline inventories. "While demand is not expected to increase further as de-stocking of winter grade gasoline should have occurred already," Rafield explained, "refiner output is not expected to climb." Refiners pushed gasoline yields to a difficult-to-sustain level of 62.32% the week ending February 20. But with the RBOB crack spread moving to a premium to the heating oil crack, refiners will likely favor higher gasoline output rather than distillates.
In terms of middle distillate stocks, analysts anticipate a decline of 1.5 million barrels, with the decrease concentrated in heating oil. Ongoing wintry weather along the Atlantic Coast keeps demand for heating oil strong and inventories declining.
For more information on crude oil, visit Platts website.