The Platts pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API estimates suggests a draw of 1.7 million barrels in US oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks down 1.7 million barrels
- Gasoline stocks up 650,000 barrels
- Distillates stocks up 950,000 barrels
- Refinery utilization or run rate up 0.25 percentage point to 86.15%
New York, NY - June 15, 2009
Analysts expect weekly oil inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) to show U.S. commercial crude stocks declined 1.7 million barrels the week ending June 12, a Platts survey of analysts showed Monday.
The API is scheduled to release its data at 4:30 pm EDT (2030 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's report is to be released at 10:30 am EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday.
"Without a sizable recovery in U.S. crude imports, which in the previous week's EIA report dropped 676,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 8.97 million b/d, stocks are apt to decline again," said Linda Rafield, Platts senior oil analyst and editor of the weekly Platts Futures and Derivatives Review. "The 9.646 million b/d crude import level the week ending May 29 appeared to be a one-off event as some oil in floating storage was brought onshore," Rafield said.
Refinery runs will not likely factor heavily into crude balances, given that analysts polled by Platts are expecting an increase of 0.25 percentage points to 86.15%.
Analysts anticipate a build in gasoline stocks of 650,000 barrels, with refiners apt to increase output given an attractively-priced New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) RBOB crack spread. The spread is the price difference between the barrel of raw crude and the refined products that can be produced from that barrel of crude. The July RBOB crack ran at about a-$7.50-per-barrel premium to the heating oil crack spread the week ending June 12.
Middle distillate stocks are expected to show a build of 950,000 barrels, with low refiner output trumped by low demand readings.