The Platts pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API estimates suggests a build of 2.1 million barrels in US oil stocks

Platts Survey of Analysts

• Crude oil stocks down 2.1 million barrels
• Gasoline stocks up 1.2 million barrels
• Distillates stocks up 900,000 barrels
• Refinery utilization, or run rate, down 0.6% to 85%

New York, NY - September 28, 2009

Analysts expect weekly U.S. oil data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) to show a build of 2.1 million barrels for the week ending September 25 as refinery throughputs should drop, a survey showed Monday.

API is scheduled to release its data at 4:30 pm EDT (2030 GMT) Tuesday. The EIA will release its report at 10:30 am EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday.

One analyst is calling for a crude inventory draw of 1 to 2 million barrels, on an expected drop in imports, but most analysts polled by Platts are looking for a build in this week's API and EIA statistics.

Analysts are looking for refinery runs to average 85% of capacity, down from the EIA's 85.6% figure the prior week.

U.S. crude inventories for the week ending September 18 climbed 2.8 million barrels to 335.6 million barrels, according to the EIA, putting stocks 45.4 million barrels above year-ago levels.

But between the end of July and September 4, crude inventories had fallen roughly 20 million barrels, largely on low imports. Imports the week ending September 18 jumped nearly 1 million barrels per day (b/d), which could have been a one-off event.

Analysts are looking for gasoline inventories to build by 1.20 million barrels, and distillate inventories to climb 900,000 barrels. While reduced refinery runs should result in lower distillate and gasoline production, implied demand – the amount of product that moves through the U.S. distribution system, not actual end consumption – is expected to remain low enough to result in stock increases.