The Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests US EIA data will show a 27- to 31-Bcf addition to natural gas stocks for the latest reporting week

Washington - October 28, 2009

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is expected to report an addition of between 27 and 31 billion cubic feet (Bcf) to natural gas storage inventories for the week that ended October 23, according to a Platts survey of analysts.

An injection within expectations would be smaller than last year's 49-Bcf build and the five-year-average injection of 43 Bcf, according to EIA. As a result, the 397-Bcf surplus over last year and 432-Bcf surplus over the five-year average each should shrink.

The wide range of analyst expectations spanned from a build of 15 Bcf to 50 Bcf. EIA estimated an injection of 18 Bcf for the week that ended October 16.

FirstEnergy Capital analyst Martin King said a "simple moderation in temperatures from the week prior" is behind expectations for a larger injection reported this week.

But King, whose own estimate was toward the higher end of expectations at 48 Bcf, said a lower build is possible. He said facilities in some regions are reaching maximum capacity, while cash prices have traded at or above front-month New York Mercantile Exchange futures prices, thus reducing the financial incentive to inject.

With two reporting weeks still remaining to the traditional injection season, storage is already at an all-time high of 3.734 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) as of October 16. "Mild temperatures in the high-consumption regions and record storage levels are the focus as gas prices trade near recent lows," MF Global analyst John Kilduff said.

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This analyst survey is conducted by Platts’ editorial team in Washington DC and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 am (EST) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the US Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. IMPORTANT NOTE TO EDITORS: The survey results attached above do not contain commentary from a Platts staff member. The survey is conducted and prepared by the Platts market news editors, but the views are those of non-Platts market analysts. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis. This differs from the weekly pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API US oil stocks data conducted each week by Platts Senior Oil Analyst Linda Rafield, which does include the views of Platts’ oil analyst Linda Rafield.