The Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests US EIA data will show a 19- to 23-Bcf addition to natural gas stocks for the latest reporting week
Washington - November 18, 2009
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is expected to report an addition of between 19 and 23 billion cubic feet (Bcf) to natural gas storage inventories for the week that ended November 13, according to a Platts survey of analysts.
A build within expectations would be roughly equivalent to last year's 23-Bcf injection and higher than the five-year-average of 10 Bcf, according to EIA. As a result, the 350-Bcf surplus over the year-ago level should hold steady while the 409-Bcf surplus over the five-year average should expand.
Beyond the consensus, the wider range of analyst expectations spanned from a build of 10 Bcf to 31 Bcf.
Kent Bayazitoglu, director of market analytics at Gelber & Associates, said mild weather has allowed for continued weekly injections well into November, when the winter withdrawal season typically begins.
"Gelber models indicate that market is having an easier time injecting gas in November than September," he said. "This may indicate that smaller injections are easier to handle in a full storage environment. It may also indicate that addition supply is making its way back to the market. Certain producers that held back production in the fall may bring forward production in the winter with the hope of getting higher prices," explained Bayazitoglu.
Tim Evans, an analyst at Citi Futures Perspective, said current price trends are favorable for operators to inject gas now for sale during the upcoming heating season. “Given that the cash market has been trading at a substantial discount to futures, we'd guess the build would be significantly greater if storage capacity was not nearly full," said Evans.
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This analyst survey is conducted by Platts’ editorial team in Washington DC and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 am (EST) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the US Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. IMPORTANT NOTE TO EDITORS: The survey results attached above do not contain commentary from a Platts staff member. The survey is conducted and prepared by the Platts market news editors, but the views are those of non-Platts market analysts. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis. This differs from the weekly pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API US oil stocks data conducted each week by Platts Senior Oil Analyst Linda Rafield, which does include the views of Platts’ oil analyst Linda Rafield.
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